In the previous federal election, discussions in Quebec shifted from defending the province’s interests to protecting Canada against the threats and rhetoric from Donald Trump about potentially making Canada the 51st state. On election day, Mark Carney’s Liberals benefited from this sentiment, achieving their best result in decades in the province and overshadowing the Bloc Québécois.
The focus on Quebec’s identity, secularism, and language was drowned out by the noise emanating from Washington. As the provincial election commences, there is speculation on whether the U.S. president will once again play a significant role.
The recently imposed tariffs took center stage in the days leading up to the campaign launch, forcing all party leaders to demonstrate their ability to shield the province from the economic repercussions. The handling of the economy during uncertain times appears to be a crucial factor for voters, according to polling analyst Philippe Fournier.
Prior to the escalation of the trade war, polls indicated that healthcare, housing, and the cost of living were top concerns for voters. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) faces challenges after two terms in power and amidst a dissatisfied electorate. Economic stability may become a key priority for voters, potentially benefiting the CAQ.
Quebec is projected to be heavily impacted by the new tariffs, particularly due to its reliance on automotive, metals, and manufacturing exports. The leading Parti Québécois (PQ) candidate, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, stated that a referendum would not be called until the end of Trump’s second term.
The comparison is drawn between CAQ Leader Christine Fréchette and Mark Carney, with Fréchette unveiling financial aid programs for sectors hit hardest by the tariffs. However, the CAQ’s progress under Fréchette does not parallel Carney’s immediate popularity boost for the Liberals.
Opponents are challenging the perception that Fréchette is best suited to handle the current situation, with claims that she is out of touch with federal negotiation tactics. Various parties are proposing different approaches, with Québec Solidaire suggesting a “Trump provision” to support affected entities and the Conservatives pledging spending cuts and tax relief.
The ability to reassure the electorate amid the uncertainties brought by Donald Trump and the tariffs could give a leader an advantage in the election, according to Fournier. The race remains unpredictable as to which leader will emerge as the steady hand amidst the storm.
