After being on the defensive for months, Doug Ford shifted gears this week, engaging in a verbal clash with Donald Trump. According to political analysts and experts, this confrontation with the unpredictable U.S. president is playing to the premier’s strengths and has led to a surge in his approval ratings just before three crucial provincial byelections.
Ford and Trump exchanged insults earlier in the week following the breakdown of trade discussions between American and Canadian negotiators. Trump likened the premier to his late brother, former Toronto mayor Rob Ford, describing him as less charismatic, intelligent, and impressive. He also referred to Ford as a “flunky” of Prime Minister Mark Carney. In response, Ford criticized Trump as the “king of bankruptcies” and a “bully.”
Expressing his resilience, Ford stated, “I’ve been in this game a lot longer than he has, I got skin on me like an alligator, and you think an insult from him hurts me?”
The ongoing conflict with Trump has proven beneficial for Ford in the past, helping him secure a third consecutive majority government win during the snap election in early 2025. Notably, his personal approval ratings soared by 12 points this week, propelling his Progressive Conservatives into the lead in a Liaison Strategies opinion survey conducted on the same day as his verbal duel with the president.
This week, voters in Scarborough Southwest, York-Simcoe, and Hamilton East–Stoney Creek will cast their ballots in the byelections. While York-Simcoe has traditionally been a stronghold for the Tories, the outcomes in Scarborough Southwest and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek are expected to be closely contested. Experts suggest that Ford’s clash with Trump could potentially rally support for the Progressive Conservatives in these ridings.
Former Liberal cabinet minister John Milloy believes that voters, seeking an outlet to express their frustration towards Trump, may find motivation to participate in the byelections due to Ford’s anti-Trump stance. Milloy emphasized the importance of voter turnout in these contests.
Notwithstanding the controversies surrounding the PCs in recent months, NDP strategist Erin Morrison acknowledged the impact of the Ford-Trump conflict as a potential catalyst for change in the byelections, particularly in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek and Scarborough South West.
Conservative strategist Sam Duncan highlighted Ford’s ability to connect emotionally with the electorate, suggesting that the premier’s recent actions have reinforced his appeal to voters. Duncan speculated on the potential influence of the Trump feud on the byelections, predicting varying outcomes in Scarborough and Hamilton.
While the verbal sparring with Trump may enhance the overall perception of Ford’s government, McMaster University political science professor Peter Graefe cautioned against overestimating its impact. Graefe noted that in areas like Hamilton East, where steel tariffs are a significant concern, Ford’s promises to protect the province might resonate more with voters, albeit with a relatively marginal impact.
