Labour faced a significant loss in its traditional Welsh strongholds, landing in third place in the Caerphilly Senedd by-election. Experts analyzing the polls noted that the party is encountering serious challenges leading up to the pivotal Welsh Parliament elections in May 2026.
Plaid Cymru secured a decisive victory in Caerphilly, garnering a lead of 3,848 votes and an impressive swing of nearly 27% from Labour, with a voter turnout exceeding 50%. Early morning results displayed Plaid capturing 47% of the vote share, surpassing Nigel Farage’s Reform UK at 36%.
Labour, who had maintained the Caerphilly seat since its inception in 1999, fell behind to a disappointing 11% in third place. The Conservative candidate, Gareth Potter, received a mere 690 votes, while the Greens and the Liberal Democrats secured 516 and 497 votes respectively. Despite a strong campaign effort, Reform also fell short of clinching the Welsh seat.
Following Labour’s defeat, First Minister Eluned Morgan acknowledged the challenging circumstances of the by-election and expressed gratitude to their candidate, Richard Tunnicliffe. She congratulated Lindsey Whittle on his win and acknowledged the community’s desire for faster change, emphasizing that Welsh Labour is committed to learning from the outcome and returning stronger.
Nick Thomas-Symonds, the Welsh Labour MP and Minister for Europe, admitted to the tough battle ahead in the upcoming Senedd elections after the loss to Plaid. Recognizing the fractured political landscape in the UK, he pledged to heed the feedback received in Caerphilly regarding the pace of change.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice indicated that Plaid is now positioned favorably to potentially produce Wales’ next First Minister. While acknowledging Reform’s disappointment with the results, he noted the party’s consistent national polling trends. Plaid’s leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, hailed the victory in Caerphilly as a choice for hope and progress over division, positioning Plaid as the leading alternative for Wales’ future leadership.
