To all appearances, Russia perceives itself as engaged in a conflict with NATO allies. This stance, while not yet resulting in direct military confrontation, enables the Kremlin to secure the necessary resources and personnel to carry out exploratory assaults on NATO’s defenses, pinpoint vulnerabilities, and ascertain red lines.
In a strategic move, Russia has been conducting a covert campaign against NATO powers in Europe, away from conventional battlefronts. Alleged acts of sabotage attributed to Russia include disruptions to the Polish railway network, efforts to interfere with undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, and an increasingly bold and hazardous initiative by the GRU to disrupt supply chains and logistics crucial for NATO’s support of Ukraine.
The primary objectives for the Kremlin in these actions are to elevate the costs for NATO’s backing of Ukraine, disrupt supply chains temporarily, and sow discord within Western nations. Despite these provocations, Russia has refrained from crossing any threshold that might trigger a military response from NATO. Moreover, Russia’s utilization of third-party proxies, often recruited from social media platforms, adds a layer of complexity to identifying the true perpetrators.
Upon closer examination, the sabotage activities lack a high level of coordination across Europe, and their scale and targeting do not consistently align with the level of military and economic assistance provided to Ukraine by different countries. Notably, while Germany, France, and Poland have faced significant physical attacks due to their support for Ukraine, the UK has experienced fewer such incidents despite being a major contributor to Ukraine’s military and economic aid.
As highlighted by Defence Secretary John Healey in a recent press briefing, this variance in targeting does not necessarily indicate a lack of interest from Russian intelligence services in the UK. Russia invests substantial resources in monitoring and collecting information on the UK, as evidenced by recent incidents like the intrusion of the Yantar surveillance vessel into British waters.
One challenge for Russia is the disruption of its intelligence networks in Europe in 2022 when around 400 diplomats allegedly linked to the GRU were expelled by European nations. This disruption has forced Russia to rebuild its networks and rely on local proxies, introducing additional risks to its operations. Consequently, the attacks may lack full coordination and effectiveness at present, but Russia is likely to adapt and enhance its strategies, posing a continued risk to non-military targets across Europe, including the UK.
